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The Satellite Industry is in a Period of Momentous Transformation The satellite industry is going through a period of momentous transformation with the emergence of new entrants and new technologies in every segment of the value chain. For decades satellite communications have been dominated by a handful of GEO satellite manufacturers, satellite operators and ground segment manufacturers with almost a cottage-industry-like network of service providers and value-added manufacturers (BUCs, LNBs and antennas). This has been a linear and predictable business model with entirely proprietary technologies. We now see the emergence of new Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO), or multi orbit players in LEO, MEO and HEO building completely vertically integrated systems. This shift has significantly driven down capacity pricing: the price of satellite bandwidth for data services has dropped 77% over five years according to analysts Novaspace, formerly known as Euroconsult. Starlink, as the first to market, is making waves by disrupting market sectors historically monopolised by the established GEO players such as maritime, aero and enterprise connectivity. Two years ago, the industry would have dismissed Starlink's impact on maritime or aero connectivity segments. The sentiment was that Starlink has ‘no CIR’ (Committed Information Rate) and therefore would not be considered ‘reliable’ for mobile or critical communications. This notion has since been overturned and the naysayers have paid a price with a significant impact to revenues in maritime—the cruise industry in particular—with Starlink now making inroads into aviation and previously inviolable segments like defence. Starlink has also revolutionised satellite manufacturing, leveraging new technologies such as 3D printing to mass-produce satellites at a phenomenal rate, reducing costs to between $250,000 and $500,000 per satellite. The race is on, with Elon Musk’s Starlink trying to acquire as many subscribers as possible before the challengers like Amazon's Kuiper and Telesat's Lightspeed emerge. Forrester's Digital has predicted that SpaceX’s Starlink broadband-by-satellite system is likely to end 2025 with around 8 million customers (it ended 2024 with approximately 5 million), a remarkable growth rate when you consider that each of the leading GEO satellite operators typically have around 25,000 enterprise VSAT terminals activated. We also see the emergence of Small Sat and MicroGEO manufacturers disrupting traditional commercial models with innovations like satellite-as-a-service. This technology provides additional or targeted capacity for defence and government in hotspot areas. Twenty-five years ago, building and launching a satellite would have cost at least two billion USD. Now we see them being built and launched at a fraction of that cost (circa $60 million), reducing the price per gigabit equal to or below fibre. Starlink has also been fundamental to reducing launch costs. In 1981, launch costs were $147k per kilogram of payload. Starlink’s current generation of rockets have brought this down to $2300 and with the introduction of their new Starship rocket, Elon Musk is talking about a price as low as $100 per kilogram. This scale of reduction in launch costs is driving the democratisation of space by allowing new use cases for space to emerge. The satellite industry is also seeing unprecedented consolidation, coopetition and collaboration, creating a range of new offers to consumers, enterprise and governments. Significant transactions include: In April 2024, SES announced its intention to acquire rival Intelsat. If and when this completes, it will be a significant transaction In May 2023, Viasat completed its acquisition of Inmarsat In October 2023, Eutelsat and OneWeb completed their merger transaction In March 2024, prior to the SES announcement, Intelsat extended its partnership with competitor Eutelsat-OneWeb for LEO services.